NFL Week 10 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Trevor Lawrence unlikely to play, Mac Jones next QB up

Welcome to the Week 10 NFL fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop-shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings referenced in this article are current as of 2:15 p.m. ET, Nov. 7. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

The latest NFL news and headlines

Last updated: 7:30 a.m. ET, Nov. 8

Injury news | Weather report
Featured games | MVP odds
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Injury news

Updated through 7:30 a.m. ET, Nov. 8

Sunday 9:30 a.m.

Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers (hamstring) — Injured reserve / Questionable
Thielen, who has been on injured reserve, practiced last week before being ruled out ahead of Week 9. So far this week, he has not practiced but could return in Week 10. With Thielen out, the Panthers will heavily rely on Xavier Legette. TE Ja’Tavion Sanders had a big Week 9 with 87 yards receiving, but it’s too early to tell if he’ll continue to see targets, especially with QB Bryce Young’s struggles.

Darius Slayton, WR, Giants (concussion) — Out
Theo Johnson, TE, Giants (knee/back) — Questionable
Slayton is out for the Germany game after suffering a concussion in Week 9. WR Wan’Dale Robinson could be second in line for targets behind Malik Nabers, especially if Johnson can’t take the field.

Sunday 1 p.m.

Trevor Lawrence, QB, Jaguars (shoulder) — Questionable
Lawrence is unlikely to play, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport. With the Jags QB1 sidelined, Mac Jones is the next man up.  With Lawrence out, Jacksonville’s skill position players, including WR Brian Thomas Jr. (questionable), RBs Tank Bigsby (questionable), and Travis Etienne Jr. (questionable), take a hit heading into Week 10.

Christian McCaffrey, RB, 49ers (Achilles) — Injured reserve / Questionable
Rumor has it that McCaffrey will return in Week 10. If so, bench Jordan Mason and Isaac Guerendo, but pay close attention to how the backs are utilized. It remains to be seen if McCaffrey is used as he was pre-injury.

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (oblique/ribs) — Questionable
Jauan Jennings, WR, 49ers (hip) — Questionable
Samuel and Jennings were limited in Wednesday’s practice. If either or both of them can’t play, WR Ricky Pearsall and TE George Kittle could see more targets.

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (hamstring) — Out
Jalen McMillan, WR, Buccaneers (hamstring) — Questionable
Sterling Shepard, WR, Buccaneers (hamstring/hip) — Questionable
Evans remains out for the Bucs matchup against the 49ers but was seen working out on the sidelines early in the week. With receiver Chris Godwin on IR, the Bucs will continue to rely on TE Cade Otton and WRs Jalen McMillan (questionable), Trey Palmer, and Sterling Shepard (questionable). Otton is an every-week fantasy starter with 18, 29.1 and 21.7 fantasy points in Weeks 7, 8 and 9, respectively.

Drake London, WR, Falcons (hip) — Questionable
Kyle Pitts, TE, Falcons (hamstring) — Questionable
London was injured after catching a touchdown pass in Week 9 and is questionable heading into Week 10. If he and Pitts can’t play, WR Darnell Mooney could be in for a monster game. Mooney is playing up to his talent level after leaving Chicago and has 588 receiving yards and five touchdowns on the season.

Chris Olave, WR, Saints (concussion) — Doubtful
Cedrick Wilson Jr., WR, Saints (shoulder) — Questionable
The Saints are a mess. They fired head coach Dennis Allen and are floundering at 2-7. Losing Olave this week would be icing on the cake. Without him, the Saints will turn to Wilson (questionable) and TEs Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson, as in Week 9. With Olave doubtful, RB Alvin Kamara is the only consistent fantasy option on this New Orleans team.

Keon Coleman, WR, Bills (wrist) — Questionable
Amari Cooper, WR, Bills (wrist) — Questionable
Coleman did not practice Thursday and is questionable ahead of Week 10. WR Amari Cooper was limited in practice Thursday with a wrist injury of his own, which could mean more targets for WR Khalil Shakir and TE Dalton Kincaid if one or both receivers can’t play.

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts (back/finger) — Questionable
Pittman has been dealing with a lingering back injury and wasn’t at Thursday’s practice, according to The Athletic’s James Boyd. If Pittman can’t play, WRs Josh Downs (Ciely’s WR21) and Alec Pierce, benefit the most. Downs is the more consistent of the two receivers with 14.04 PPR points per game, while Pierce is more of a boom-or-bust option. Pierce has had two games of over 100 yards receiving and three games with 15 yards or fewer.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys (hamstring) — Out
Prescott may hit the IR after sustaining a partial avulsion of his hamstring. QB Cooper Rush is next on the depth chart, followed by Trey Lance. Neither QB offers too much upside, though Lance’s legs can supplement weaker passing. The real impact comes to every other Dallas skill position player. With a lesser passing game, RB Rico Dowdle may not find as much room to run. WR CeeDee Lamb (questionable) will still see the bulk of targets, but his value decreases some as well.

Will Levis, QB, Titans (shoulder) — Expected to play
Not much changes for fantasy players with Levis back in Week 10. His dismal 70.7 passer rating bests only recently-benched Colts QB Anthony Richardson and Bryce Young, who are not good company to keep.

Tony Pollard, RB, Titans (foot) — Questionable
Pollard didn’t practice Thursday, while Tyjae Spears returned to practice. If Pollard can’t play, Spears should see a lot of work with a lack of depth behind him.

Sunday Night Football

Nico Collins, WR, Texans (hamstring) — Injured reserve / Questionable
According to KPRC 2 Houston’s Aaron Wilson, Collins could be activated ahead of Sunday Night Football’s matchup with the Lions. His return is valuable to fantasy players who have C.J. Stroud, as the young QB has struggled in Collins’ absence. If Collins plays, he and Stroud could have a good week in a likely high-scoring affair.

Weather report

Outdoor games only

The only game potentially affected this week is in Chicago, where the Bears are heavily favored and host the New England Patriots.

Earlier this week, there was an 83-percent chance of rain, according to Rotowire, but now the forecast has shifted and the Bears-Patriots matchup has just a 31 percent chance of precipitation and an expected temperature of 60 degrees.

New England Patriots (2-7) vs. Chicago Bears (4-4)

Rookie quarterbacks Drake Maye (NE) and Caleb Williams (CHI) have never played in rainy conditions in the NFL, and now it looks like that may still hold true. But let’s look at their numbers in case the forecast shifts again.

During training camp on August 15, the Bears went against the Bengals at Halas Hall in the rain. In that practice, Williams threw an interception on his first pass during 7-on-7 but came back with two completions. He also had some productive 11-on-11 moments, hitting both Keenan Allen and DJ Moore in the endzone for touchdowns.

More relevant is Williams’ first season as the Bears’ QB and his lack of production overall. Williams ranks 29th in completion percentage (61.4 percent), which typically drops for passers in the rain. His 83.0 passer rating ranks 25th, and he’s only averaging 14.3 fantasy points per game. Williams is a bench candidate in any game, but the rain certainly won’t help his fantasy prospects in Week 10. Teams typically shift to a rushing game script in the rain, and over his career, Bears RB D’Andre Swift has averaged 6.4 yards per carry in the rain, with a successful play rate on rush attempts (EPA-based) of 35.3 percent. Even in the rain, Swift can produce and may be heavily utilized in Week 10.

Patriots RB Rhamondre Stevenson is less productive in the rain, averaging only 2.1 yards per carry, but with a small sample. Maye’s season efficiency stats are slightly better than Williams’. Maye has an 85.1 passer rating and a completion percentage of 65.6 percent. Due to the inexperience of these rookie quarterbacks, both the Bears and the Patriots will likely lean on the run, short option passes, receptions out of the backfield and quick drop-offs to tight ends and slot receivers.

This game has few reliable fantasy producers, and the rain may make it worse. Ciely has Maye as QB20 and Williams as QB21, which means they should both be benched in single QB leagues. Ciely has the most faith in Swift (RB14), Moore (WR35) and Rome Odunze (WR36). He’s also high on New England TE Hunter Henry (TE 13), who has been a favorite target of Maye with 23 targets, second only to DeMario Douglas, who’s been targeted 25 times. Henry could be heavily utilized with a game plan focused on quick, simple passes.

Wondering what the weather impact is on fantasy production? Jake Ciely has you covered like a poncho in rainy season.

Featured games

Game-specific previews and live updates are available on the day of the game. Read about every game on the schedule here.

• Venue: Allianz Arena — Munich, Germany
• Time: 9:30 a.m. ET
• TV: NFL Network
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Giants and Panthers head to Munich to play in front of fans who were probably hoping to attend a more meaningful game. That the Giants are favored in this game says more about the hapless Carolina Panthers, who continue to roll out Bryce Young. Daniel Jones has been minimally better for the Giants but has the potential for good games. In Weeks 3, 4, and 9, his passer rating was over 100, and he had completion percentages of 70.6 percent, 67.6 percent and 76.9 percent, respectively. Coming off a tremendous Week 9 effort, Jones could do well against this ailing Panthers team. Along with Jones, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers and even TE Theo Johnson could do well in this spot.

Young and the Panthers are running out of weapons. They lost Diontae Johnson and Jonathan Mingo to trades, stockpiling 2025 draft picks. With everyone out of the building, WR Xavier Legette is the clear No. 1 in Carolina — and is a viable flex play, given his expected target share. If RB Jonathon Brooks makes his debut in Week 10, the Panthers’ ground game could certainly benefit, as he and Chuba Hubbard (Ciely’s RB 22) could share the massive load necessary for the Panthers to stand a chance.

I’m all in on Nabers, Tracy Jr., and even Jones in this game. The rule of the 2024 fantasy season is to start anyone who plays the Panthers — a team that can’t stay on the field and is last in opponent yards per game, last in opponent rushing yards per game and 25th in opponent passing yards per game.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday). 

Sunday afternoon

Philadelphia Eagles (6-2) vs. Dallas Cowboys (3-5)

• Venue: AT&T Stadium — Arlington, Texas
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

As of Thursday morning, the Eagles were favored by more than a touchdown in this NFC East rivalry game, which is no shock given Dak Prescott’s injury and Cooper Rush under center.

Rush’s career stats for the Cowboys are middling, nearing disastrous — 60 percent completion percentage, 81.0 passer rating, nine touchdowns, six interceptions. If he were a 2024 starter, this stat line would best only Mason Rudolph, Anthony Richardson, Jacoby Brissett and Bryce Young. CeeDee Lamb is week-to-week with a shoulder injury, which doesn’t do much to instill confidence in this Cowboys offense. Sure, they will try to lean on Rico Dowdle (Ciely’s RB26) who’s had average success this year. But Dowdle isn’t Saquon Barkley, and the Eagles have that guy.

Philadelphia could not be playing the Cowboys at a better time, and they are built to capitalize on that. Barkley and DeVonta Smith are healthy and ready for Week 10, and A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert are practicing this week, giving them a chance to play. If Jalen Hurts has his weapons back, watch out because he’s won without them. Philly skill position players are must-starts most weeks, but against the Cowboys — who should struggle to stay on the field, give up the most yards per attempt and rank near the bottom of the league in opponent yards per game — whoever of Brown, Smith, Barkley and Goedert plays should be slotted into fantasy lineups.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

Detroit Lions (7-1) vs. Houston Texans (6-3)

• Venue: NRG Stadium — Houston, Texas
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Detroit may be the most complete team in the league. Jared Goff is an MVP candidate, leads the league in completion percentage (74.9 percent), has the second-best passer rating (115), and the second-most yards per attempt (8.7). His success does not come from dumping off short passes left and right, though Expected Points Added (EPA) King Jahmyr Gibbs and his receiving out of the backfield certainly helps. Gibbs leads the league in EPA per carry with a rate of 0.27, which doubles No. RB Derrick Henry’s. And Gibbs is just one of two productive backs for the Lions, as David Montgomery has played excellently this season, too, averaging 15.75 fantasy points per game.

The Lions also have Amon-Ra St. Brown (Ciely’s WR4) and Jameson Williams, who is expected to return from a two-game suspension, along with talented TE Sam LaPorta. Detroit has no shortage of weapons, unlike the Texans, who are down Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins, though the latter could return in Week 10.

But Houston still has C.J. Stroud, who, while having a down year (21st in fantasy points per game) and losing to the Jets last week, has big-play potential with Collins back. Then, there’s Joe Mixon, Ciely’s RB4, ranked third overall in PPR points per game. Before his injury, Collins led the league’s receivers in yards per game (113.4), ranking fourth in targets and fifth in receptions. Tank Dell can’t do it alone, so Collins’ return is essential to Houston’s success — along with good play from the Texans defense.

Houston’s D gives up only 281.7 yards per game (2nd) and 167.4 passing yards per game (3rd). The Lions, on the other hand, rank near the bottom of the league in many defensive categories except rush defense, which happens to be Houston’s only semi-weakness. Given defensive holes, Gibbs, Montgomery and Collins (if available) could all have a good day.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Monday night

Miami Dolphins (2-6) vs. Los Angeles Rams (4-4)

• Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Monday night’s matchup features two teams that struggled early in the season due to injuries but are making their way back to better play. The return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua, two every-week fantasy starters, gave Matthew Stafford the targets he needed to win games. Now on a three-game winning streak, the Rams are back in the NFL playoff picture.

With injuries to the wide receiver corps, Kyren Williams took over and is fantasy’s RB7 with 18.7 PPR points per game. While he’s certainly helping fantasy teams, the Rams rank 26th in rushing yards per game (97.13), and Williams’ success has been supplemented by his receiving skills and 10 total touchdowns.

The Dolphins have lost their previous two games on last-second field goals and are looking to get rolling with Tua Tagovailoa back in the lineup. Tyreek Hill had his second-best performance of the year in Week 9 with 80 yards on four receptions and five targets. On the other hand, Jaylen Waddle hopes to never see last week’s stat sheet again, as he had two catches for negative two yards.

Tagovailoa’s presence will surely help, though. He ranks fourth in the league in EPA per dropback and first in tight-window completion percentage. But De’Von Achane has provided the most consistency for this team and is fantasy’s RB9 in PPR points per game. As of Thursday morning, Los Angeles was favored but by a very small margin. The Dolphins have had bad luck this season, but they have the talent to turn it around at any point, unlike most of the other NFL teams with 2-6 records.

Read the full preview (coming Monday).

NFL MVP odds

Khari Demos talks MVP odds. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen top the board. 

Question from Melissa B.: At what point do you consider what teams your competitors have left when making your pick for the week? Eight left in my pool — most have already used Kansas City. I’ve been sitting on them for weeks 12 (Carolina) or 13 (Vegas), but maybe this is a good opportunity to take them against Denver? Or do I just stick with my original plan and take the Chargers at home vs. Tennessee this week?

Get Ciely’s full Week 10 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.