NBA Rookie Rankings: Grizzlies' Zach Edey, Jaylen Wells lead underwhelming draft class

It’s time for the season’s first edition of the NBA Rookie Rankings. And, boy, is this a difficult thing to build.

This has not been a productive class so far. Very few players are getting anything resembling a significant role, especially on good teams. Last season at this time, 14 rookies were averaging at least seven points per game. Entering Tuesday, there were eight, and four of those players are posting catastrophic true shooting percentages under 48 percent.

To refresh on the rankings as a whole: We rank the league’s top 15 rookies, based on how they have performed as NBA players. These are not based on how they are doing at the time of the rankings or a projection of the players they will become. They are full-season assessments of how they have played to this point in their NBA careers.

What do I look for when I rank players? Minutes and roles matter. What is each rookie getting asked to do? How often are they seeing the court? Are they being asked to create offense for their teams? Is their role limited, and how successful are they in that role? How successful is the team with them within that role? What is the degree of difficulty of said role? Is the player logging real minutes on a good team or eating up minutes on a bad team that doesn’t have anyone better?

This is an art, not a science. The rankings involve examining numbers and analyzing a painstaking amount of tape, and I value the latter more.

The structure is as follows: I rank the rookies, write about four of them in-depth, then explain the rest of the rankings with some notes.

(Team and player statistics are as of Wednesday afternoon.)

Grizzlies top the list

Given that precious few rookies are actually helping good teams, I decided I’d rather reward those helping a team to victories as opposed to ones racking up production on a bad team. The top three players here are playing a key role on winning teams. Only one other rookie on this list is getting more than 12 minutes per game while featuring on a team with a winning record (more on him later).

Let’s start with the two at the top, both earning significant playing time for the 7-4 Memphis Grizzlies. Zach Edey is the top-ranked player for several reasons.

He started his NBA career a bit slowly over the first week, struggling with foul trouble and his positioning overall. However, he’s been extremely valuable since then. Since Oct. 30, Edey is averaging 13.1 points, 7.6 rebounds and over an assist, steal and block per game.

He’s achieving every hope the Grizzlies had for him upon drafting him ninth overall in June, providing a substantial degree of toughness and physicality the team lacked last season because of injuries and the departures of Steven Adams and Jonas Valančiūnas. Already, Edey is playing the role of the biggest bully in the schoolyard. Anybody who spoke with him and watched him in college knew he not only embraces physicality, but he also refuses to back down in the face of anyone trying him.

This is so great pic.twitter.com/DcNpQqwdZe

— eric (@EricTweetsNBA) November 9, 2024

More importantly, Edey is also starting to become a serious deterrent on the defensive end. Standing 7-foot-4 with a near-8-foot standing reach, Edey is already an excellent help defender around the rim. He rotates well and makes himself available to contest around the basket. Among the 48 NBA players contesting at least four shots around the rim per game, Edey’s percentage against of 55.8 ranks 15th-best. Moreover, he’s also making early strides in ball-screen defense. The main concern people had with Edey coming into the draft was how he’d handle these situations. He showed significant growth over his four years at Purdue in this regard, gaining quickness and becoming better with his angles as he got into better shape. However, in the NBA, the driving lanes are wider, and the help defense has to rotate from farther away. NBA bigs are required to consistently both contain ballhandlers and not allow rollers to get behind them. They have to cover an immense amount of space while their guard recovers back into the play while fighting over a ball screen, essentially guarding in a one-on-two situation.

Thus far, Edey has had more success against teams that have only a primary rolling option as opposed to a player who can pick-and-pop. However, if a player doesn’t have that ability to pick-and-pop, Edey has been quite valuable. He does an excellent job of sliding his feet and using angles perfectly. He keeps his hands high and wide, cutting off angles for pocket passes or lobs. I broke all of that down in detail over his two-game stretch against the Brooklyn Nets and Philadelphia 76ers last week. He outplayed both Andre Drummond and Nic Claxton and was excellent later in the week against the Wizards and Blazers.

The common denominator there is that Drummond, Claxton, Deandre Ayton and Valančiūnas don’t present significant threats to Edey in terms of perimeter skill. That’s where Edey will eventually be tested. Teams will try to get small against him at some point and see what he can do. It’ll be incumbent upon him to hold up on defense, while also hammering the opposition offensively with his size and touch on the block. But so far, so good.

Edey’s performance hasn’t necessarily been a surprise, given that he was the national Player of the Year in college basketball each of the last two seasons. But Jaylen Wells? That’s definitely a surprise.

Wells’ trajectory is about as cool as any NBA player’s in the league. A true late-bloomer who got caught in the COVID-19 recruiting vortex, Wells has been on a meteoric rise over the last five years. He only played two years of varsity high school basketball because he was about 5-8 as a freshman in high school. He grew to 6-2 as a junior then 6-6 as a senior, and in that time, he transformed his game. He won the Metro Player of the Year award in Sacramento as a senior, but because he hadn’t really been seen outside of his area during the pandemic, he ended up at Division II Sonoma State to start his career. From there, he transferred up to Washington State after a monster sophomore season and averaged 15 points per game in the Pac-12 for an NCAA Tournament team.

Wells declared for the draft, and the underdog story didn’t stop there. He wasn’t even invited to the NBA Draft Combine until Creighton center Ryan Kalkbrenner decided to return to school. Wells earned his way into being selected 39th and has emerged as a starter while Desmond Bane misses time with an oblique injury. Wells has done so by sticking to what he does best: Knocking down shots from distance. Wells is averaging 11.4 points per game while drilling 39.2 percent of his 3s and providing real space for guys like Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. to attack on offense. He’s also done a good job of leaking out on the break and finding chances in transition, and occasionally he does a good job of attacking closeouts and cutting to the rim.

Memphis also hands Wells the responsibility most nights of guarding the opposing team’s toughest perimeter player, to take that job away from Morant. He’s already been tasked with taking on guys like Tyrese Maxey, Cam Thomas and other terrific scorers. The results have been mixed (as it would be for any rookie), but there’s every reason to be believe Wells is already a massive steal for a Grizzlies scouting department that consistently has found key contributors outside of the top 20 (see: Bane, G.G. Jackson, Vince Williams, Santi Aldama and others).

We’ll see how the Grizzlies rotation shakes out once everyone gets healthy, but Wells looks to have carved out a real role for the team moving forward.

Wizards have some reason for excitement

It would be unfair to call the Wizards a particularly good basketball team right now. They were 2-7 entering Wednesday and had the worst point differential of any team in the Eastern Conference. And yet, I still think there’s plenty of reason to say the Wizards are a fun basketball team right now. Bilal Coulibaly’s early explosion is one reason for it, as he’s turning into the kind of two-way wing every team dreams of having on its roster.

However, the rookie class is another reason. Bub Carrington comes in at No. 5 on this list, and he’s been the most productive rookie outside of Edey. Over his last six games, he’s averaging 10 points, six assists and five rebounds while generally possessing a level of efficiency few rookies have posted this year. His 53.5 true shooting percentage isn’t above-average league-wide, but it’s one of the better marks among first-year guards — especially ones playing as big of a role as he is.

The big key for Carrington is his ability to play in ball screens while blending scoring and passing. His handle is terrific. He keeps the ball on a string, possessing the ability to play off a live dribble and threaten the defense. He’s smart at finding the pocket pass to his rolling big, and he seems to deal well with ball pressure from opposing guards. He doesn’t always go forward without a screen yet when he’s facing a stronger, older player. But he also doesn’t seem to get flustered, posting a 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover rate thus far. He plays at his own pace and does an excellent job at keeping the advantage on his defenders. He’s also making his pull-up jumpers at a very high clip, having hit 16 of 32 of them to this point with an even split between 3s and 2s.

Ultimately, the key for Carrington’s career will be trying to create more easy shots for himself. He’s still only creating two shots per game at the rim, with only 1.5 of those being in half-court settings. A big issue is he’s just not that explosive. He has great shiftiness, and as he gets stronger, he should be able to further create advantages with his frame. But right now, he hasn’t exactly been consistent at getting the defense to collapse by starting lead guard standards in the NBA. Carrington’s incredibly young, having just turned 19 in July. For him to even be at this level already is a positive sign that the Wizards probably got a steal. But his ceiling will be determined by that ability to create those advantages.

Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George have been a bit more up-and-down but still fun to watch. I ranked Sarr ahead of George because I think his defense has been better, but neither has been particularly efficient on offense. Sarr is at 34 percent from the field and 20 percent from 3, with George coming in at 37 percent from the field and 27 percent from 3. George has had a couple of flashy games recently, dropping 20 on Golden State while taking 17 3s and scoring 17 against Memphis.

George is firing with confidence from 3, which is the skill that felt most projectable, and his role right now is exactly what the Wizards hope it will be in the future. George is a little bit older than you think given that he was a one-and-done player at Miami (Fla.); he turns 21 next month. But he’s a late bloomer who grew significantly in his later teens. If the shot falls, he’ll probably be a solid rotation player into the future, as he’s also been active on the defensive end.

Sarr has probably had the most star flashes of the three, including a few incredible full-court grab-and-go drives turning defense into offense as a 7-footer.

He’s also had a number of impressive moments on defense that showcase serious upside, including this switch-and-swat against Orlando Magic wing Franz Wagner that showed his ability to move as well as his playmaking upside.

And yet, the flaws are apparent. He’s still going through growing pains defensively as a rebounder and physical interior presence at the center position. His rotations are sometimes a step late, an expected outcome for a rookie but one that will require improvement.

But that pales in comparison to the overall offensive experience for Sarr right now, which has not been positive despite the flashes. He’s making under 35 percent from the field for two reasons. First, his finishing isn’t that great on touch opportunities (he’s made just 33 percent of his layups, per Synergy). But more importantly, he tends to live out on the perimeter right now. It’s hard to tell someone who is making only 33 percent of his layups that he needs to be on the interior more, but it would help Washington if he could provide a more consistent rolling presence to the rim as opposed to his typical slip and pop out to the perimeter or midrange.

The Wizards drafted Sarr knowing he was a project and that this was going to take some time. And the flashes are probably enough when he’s also going out there and blocking nearly three shots per game. But how the team shapes his long-term offensive approach is going to be key to getting the most out of him. In large part, that’ll depend as much on how Sarr develops his skill level and touch as it does on them.

Ajay Mitchell is helping one of the league’s best teams

Cards on the table here: Mitchell has probably been my favorite rookie in the class so far. The lone rookie currently on a two-way contract who is ranked, the former UC Santa Barbara guard has been outstanding playing a role for a terrific Oklahoma City team. He’s averaging just five points and two assists, but the numbers don’t do it justice. He’s one of those guys whom you just have to watch play to understand how his presence is helping the Thunder run consistently efficient offense.

The Thunder don’t ask him to be the primary playmaker on the court. There are times where he’ll bring the ball up or initiate an action, but he spends most of his minutes with at least one of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander or Jalen Williams on the court. That’s fine by Mitchell, who has been elite at picking his spots and taking what the defense gives him. More than anything, he’s been awesome at playing both on and off the ball and keeping defenses honest. He’s shooting 55 percent from the field and 50 percent from 3, consistently hitting his catch-and-shoot 3s and finding little creases in the defense out of ball screens (he was pairing nicely with Chet Holmgren until the 7-footer’s hip injury). Mitchell can stop and pop from the midrange, get to a nice little floater or drive by defenders and find open areas.

Mitchell has made the 3s when they’ve come to him, but more than anything, he’s attacking closeouts and keeping the offense in flow either by scoring or passing. Among the rookie class, Mitchell feels like the king of the hockey assist and extra pass. The below clip is a perfect example, where Houston has to scramble around after putting two players on the ball in a screen action at the top. Williams hits Holmgren on the other wing. Holmgren swings it down to Mitchell, who then takes a quick dribble and hits a perfect cross-court pass to Aaron Wiggins, who swings it down to Isaiah Joe in the corner for an easy 3. It’s poetry in motion, with Mitchell being a key cog in keeping the defense in rotation.

This might seem like small stuff that any player with NBA talent can do, but it’s not. Mitchell has terrific feel for the game and processes things quickly. That ability has allowed him to play more minutes than recent first-round picks Dillon Jones and Ousmane Dieng. Much like the Grizzlies, the Thunder have an awesome track record with either undrafted or second-round players — Luguentz Dort and Wiggins are prime examples in their rotation right now. Mitchell looks like the next one.

Other notes

• Again, I gave real deference here to the players helping winning teams largely because even the players among the leaders in points haven’t exactly been that productive. Because of that lack of production, slotting the players from a ranking perspective wasn’t been easy. If I were breaking these players into tiers, I would have Edey clearly at No. 1; Wells, McCain, Dunn and Carrington in a group together; then Zaccharie Risacher, Mitchell and Yves Missi. If you think Sarr’s offensive inefficiency has been so problematic that you want him off the list, you can make that case. If you think I’m ranking McCain too highly based on his recent push despite the fact that he was 20th in minutes played among rookies as of Sunday, that case also can be made. If you want someone like Tristan da Silva or Reed Sheppard on the list, they’re certainly in the mix. The difference between the players in this ranking isn’t all that wide, and very few players have been difference-makers.

• The Sixers have needed a lift through their early-season injuries, and McCain has given them that. It’s hard to overvalue his impact, and there’s a case McCain could be No. 1. He has been efficient and comfortable, never looking sped up despite being undersized and in his first season as a 20-year-old. He’s nearly leading all rookies in scoring at 11.5 points per game and has consistently found his way into the paint. And if you look only at his past seven games before Wednesday, McCain is averaging 15.8 points on even better efficiency. He’s the fastest-rising rookie right now, and even though he’s not quite at the highest level of minutes yet, he looks like a serious contender for Rookie of the Year if the early part of the season is any indication. I’ll almost certainly be writing about him in more detail in the future.

• Ryan Dunn comes in at No. 4 as a critical wing for an awesome Phoenix Suns team. The 6-6 defensive savant has been great on that end already, but the shooting has caught people by surprise. There are going to be ups and downs with Dunn’s marks from distance. Through his first five games, he made 44 percent. Through the next five, he was under 20 percent. However, the key is that he’s confident taking them, something I never would have guessed following a sophomore season at Virginia where there were full games in which he would barely look at the rim. He has completely rebuilt his confidence and looks like a steal as a late first-round pick for Phoenix.

No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher has had some moments for the Hawks but has been inconsistent. (Dale Zanine / Imagn Images)

• No. 1 pick Risacher rounds out the top six. He’s had arguably the best single game for a rookie this season, a 33-point, six-rebound beauty Nov. 6 against the Knicks. But it’s certainly been a roller coaster for him on the offensive end. Risacher is shooting 37 percent from the field and 26 percent from 3. The 3-point shot was always the key swing skill here, as he was consistently inconsistent in the French league last year. He was tremendous for the first three months, then couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn for the next couple of months. Risacher, however, has consistently been a sharp team defender throughout the first few weeks of his career. He rotates well and knows where he needs to be on the weak side.

• New Orleans center Missi is No. 7. The Pelicans have been ravaged by injuries, and it’s made life a bit harder for the Cameroonian big man. A truly elite athlete in terms of explosiveness, Missi hasn’t exactly received premier service on his rim runs without CJ McCollum, Dejounte Murray or Zion Williamson, who has played in just 30 percent of Missi’s minutes to this point. Four of Missi’s most common lineup mates so far have been Jose Alvarado, Jordan Hawkins, Javonte Green and Brandon Boston Jr. I’m intrigued to see what Missi looks like when the guards get back and the Pelicans get healthy. He looks more ready to play than I expected, and he’s the kind of athlete who profiles best playing around better players.

• Toronto has a pair of players listed here, too, in Jamal Shead and Jonathan Mogbo. Shead is second among guards averaging nearly four assists per game and has been a solid energy player. He provides a lot of effort on defense and generally has been active. He feels like one of those players for whom the numbers don’t quite tell the story. The tape looks better than the stats. Mogbo has been somewhat similar, averaging five points, four rebounds and two assists while having moments of solid defense in a Canadian oasis where defense has been optional so far this season.

• Finally, a quick note on everyone’s most-talked about rookie, Bronny James. The son of LeBron James was not considered for these rankings given that he currently does not seem to be all that effective even as a G League player, having scored six points in 31 minutes while shooting 2-of-9 from the field in his South Bay Lakers opener. He’s scored just four total points in very limited action with the NBA club. I wouldn’t expect that he lands on these rankings at any point this season.

GO DEEPER

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(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; top photos: Soobum Im / Getty Images; Adam Hagy, Jesse D. Garrabrant / NBAE via Getty Images)