The five NFL executives who ranked AFC teams earlier in the week return with their NFC rankings, just in time for the regular-season opener Thursday night.
The San Francisco 49ers are comfortably in the top spot, though not without concerns. There’s very little separating the bottom six teams, so ranking 15th isn’t much worse than ranking 12th.
The execs, whose backgrounds range from personnel evaluation to contracts/salary cap and analytics/strategy, ranked every team in each conference on condition of anonymity for competitive reasons. They also offered explanations, some of which are included below.
Teams are ordered by the median of their rankings, with ties between teams broken by average vote. All five voters’ ballots, along with the median and average for each team, are in the table below.
Five NFL execs rank the NFC
| RK | Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | MED | AVG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
1 |
1 |
1.4 |
|
|
2 |
6 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3.4 |
|
|
3 |
2 |
2 |
9 |
1 |
5 |
2 |
3.8 |
|
|
4 |
4 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
4 |
4.6 |
|
|
5 |
5 |
3 |
10 |
6 |
3 |
5 |
5.4 |
|
|
6 |
3 |
6 |
8 |
8 |
4 |
6 |
5.8 |
|
|
7 |
7 |
7 |
5 |
9 |
6 |
7 |
6.8 |
|
|
8 |
8 |
9 |
4 |
5 |
11 |
8 |
7.4 |
|
|
9 |
9 |
8 |
7 |
7 |
9 |
8 |
8 |
|
|
10 |
10 |
10 |
11 |
11 |
7 |
10 |
9.8 |
|
|
11 |
14 |
14 |
12 |
10 |
10 |
12 |
12 |
|
|
12 |
12 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
12 |
12 |
12.4 |
|
|
13 |
11 |
13 |
16 |
12 |
13 |
13 |
13 |
|
|
14 |
13 |
16 |
6 |
14 |
14 |
14 |
12.6 |
|
|
15 |
16 |
11 |
14 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
14.4 |
|
|
16 |
15 |
15 |
15 |
16 |
15 |
15 |
15.2 |
1. San Francisco 49ers
Votes: 1-1-1-3-1 | Avg.: 1.4 | Median: 1
The gap in average vote between the 49ers and the next team (Green Bay) is the largest separating any of the top nine teams (only the gap between No. 10 Tampa Bay and No. 11 Arizona was larger in the NFC).
“Who is stopping that offense? Are you kidding me?” one exec said.
The single exec ranking the 49ers lower than No. 1 in the conference cited a cumulative effect of San Francisco coming close to winning Super Bowls without breaking through. He saw some erosion of talent and wondered whether key players on offense would stay healthy again.
“There has been a lot of turmoil, and I don’t think they are as deep as they have been in the past,” this exec said. “Two of your most important players (Trent Williams and Brandon Aiyuk) have not practiced. At some point — and this may not be the year, because they are not yet paying the quarterback — it’s going to get more challenging.”
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2. Green Bay Packers
Votes: 6-5-2-2-2 | Avg.: 3.4 | Median: 2
The Green Bay optimism flowed freely. What is there to worry about?
“I’m worried about the defense,” the exec ranking the Packers sixth said. “They weren’t very good defensively last year. Their new coordinator has never done it in the NFL. They are switching to a 4-3 from a 3-4. I don’t really know what to buy there to think how good they will be.”
The voter ranking Green Bay fifth said the Packers got hot late last season, but it wasn’t clear whether that would carry over, especially with such a young team.
“They did really well at the end when they were playing with house money, nothing to lose,” this exec said. “Jordan Love is good. Is he elite? He is really talented.”
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One of the execs ranking Green Bay second in the NFC thought the Packers’ roster featured talent that would be better known in larger markets. He thought Dontayvion Wicks, a 2023 fifth-round pick, would soon become a top-15 receiver in the league.
“I’m a little hesitant because the quarterback needs to do it again,” another exec ranking Green Bay second in the NFC said, “but they are going to run the football, and they invest heavily in their defense. I think it’s a good recipe.”
Votes: 2-2-9-1-5 | Avg.: 3.8 | Median: 2
Wait, there’s an eight-spot gap between the highest and lowest votes for the Lions?
The exec slotting Detroit first in the NFC loves the way the Lions have built a four-down offense with an “in-your-face” ground game behind a strong line.
“There is a physical element to it,” this exec said. “They marry their pass game to their run game really well, and that is really hard to defend. I think they’ve added enough pieces to the back end of their defense to at least be league-average. If you are that and you are still scoring points, then you are going to be a difficult team to deal with.”
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The exec predicting a fall for the Lions thought the league would catch up to Detroit this season. He thought no team’s offense had been studied as closely over the past two seasons as the Lions’, and that defenses would be better prepared.
“They treat third down like second down, and that was something that became very public as they went deeper,” this exec said. “Teams are going to pick up on that, and they play a tougher schedule, and there’s more (pressure) on them and we’ll see what it looks like.”
Votes: 4-4-3-4-8 | Avg.: 4.6 | Median: 4
The lone exec projecting a top-half conference finish for the Rams entering last season returned to the panel this year and was lower than any other exec on Los Angeles.
“They lost a Hall of Fame player in Aaron Donald and replaced him with a second-round pick,” this exec said. “I just don’t see it. They lost Raheem Morris also.”
The other execs were betting on more than Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford. They liked what they perceived as a shift in McVay’s mindset.
“The quarterback is playing at a really high level, and McVay has reinvented himself in terms of the sleep, the staff, the mentality, and acknowledging that one of his weaknesses was the game-management piece, which he addressed by bringing in someone (John Streicher) to help,” one exec said. “Those are the margins, right?”
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Votes: 5-3-10-6-3 | Avg.: 5.4 | Median: 5
Execs were all over the place on the Eagles, with every projection — third, fifth, sixth and 10th — seeming plausible.
“There is too much noise there,” the exec projecting Philly 10th said.
The Eagles upgraded their coaching staff on paper. How will the newly configured pieces fit?
One exec noted that new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio brings a strong personality to a staff led by a head coach (Nick Sirianni) whose seat warmed last year.
Another said a motion-heavy offense under new coordinator Kellen Moore might not fit seamlessly with acclaimed incumbent line coach Jeff Stoutland, who might prefer simpler looks for blockers to execute cleanly.
“The new system also could put more on (quarterback) Jalen Hurts,” this exec said. “Without (retired center) Jason Kelce being that bridge, that is pretty interesting to me as to how all those pieces come together.”
It all looks good — on paper.
“I have a lot of respect for Kellen Moore and Vic Fangio,” one of the execs projecting Philly third said. “That offense was broken. To get someone with a good track record with his Dallas offenses, to add Jahan Dotson and Saquon Barkley to DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown and (Dallas) Goedert, they might have the best weaponry in football.”
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6. Dallas Cowboys
Votes: 3-6-8-8-4 | Avg.: 5.8 | Median: 6
The exec ranking Philly third and Dallas fourth said he didn’t think there was much separating the two. Both teams have coaches facing potential make-or-break seasons, with the Cowboys’ Mike McCarthy — and quarterback Dak Prescott — in contract years.
“They thrive in the chaos,” an exec said of the Cowboys. “Looking at sheer talent, this is a pretty good group. The injury to (DaRon) Bland is significant, but they will be able to rush the passer. They will be able to score points. They’ll be tough.”
One of the execs ranking Dallas eighth in the conference thought the McCarthy/Prescott contract storylines could be problematic.
“Dallas is nothing more than a huge hot seat — everyone, all the pressure,” this exec said. “If Dak goes down (with an injury), there is not going to be very much incentive for him to rush back with no security. I’d get myself ready for my next team, next year.”
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Votes: 7-7-5-9-6 | Avg.: 6.8 | Median: 7
The Bears are one of the most intriguing teams in the NFC with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams joining a team that ranked fifth in defensive EPA per play over the final 13 weeks of last season.
“Super talented quarterback,” one exec said. “The time-to-throw will be interesting. I do expect guys to get open quickly with Keenan Allen’s route running and what (Rome) Odunze brings. Everyone has been talking about their offense, but their defense could be better.”
Caleb Williams has renewed the optimism in Chicago, although some think the offense might have hiccups early. (Quinn Harris / Getty Images)
Multiple execs brought up Williams’ tendency to hold onto the ball in search of big plays. They thought Chicago’s offense could lack consistency as a result.
“I struggle with his play style because it’s so off-schedule, and I don’t think they are going to be very good up front,” one exec said. “If they can’t run the ball and he can’t operate on time and they have a lot of early down negatives, it becomes pure dropback on third down. But there are going to be some absolute moments of beauty off-schedule.”
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Votes: 8-9-4-5-11 | Avg.: 7.4 | Median: 8
The gap of seven spots between high and low votes for the Falcons shows an absence of consensus.
“People are not giving them enough credit for the quarterback upgrade,” the exec ranking the Falcons fourth in the NFC said. “Their starting quarterback last year (Desmond Ridder) just got cut. The other one (Taylor Heinicke) got traded. Their starting quarterback now (Kirk Cousins) has been to the playoffs — consistently.”
Cousins is also coming off a torn Achilles tendon at age 36. His backup, rookie first-round pick Michael Penix, could still provide a significant upgrade from 2023.
“I do think Atlanta is by far the best team in the division,” an exec slotting the Falcons eighth said. “It’s the best roster. I’m really intrigued to see what Raheem Morris can bring.”
The biggest Falcons skeptic on the panel thought Cousins would be vulnerable behind Atlanta’s offensive line. He also questioned the team’s pass rush despite efforts to upgrade it.
Votes: 9-8-7-7-9 | Avg.: 8 | Median: 8
Execs expect defensive improvement under new coach Mike Macdonald, but they took a wait-and-see approach overall for a team whose offensive coordinator (Ryan Grubb) and special teams coordinator (Jay Harbaugh) have a combined three years of NFL experience, all by Harbaugh more than a decade ago.
“I think those guys are really good coaches,” one exec said. “It is just an unprecedented deal for guys to have no NFL experience ever. Macdonald had some, but (offensive line coach Scott) Huff and Grubb had zero. We are talking a run-game coordinator and an offensive coordinator that have never coached in this game.”
This exec thought Seattle had sufficient skill on offense but could remain vulnerable on its line with right tackle Abe Lucas still out.
Another exec expected the Seahawks to buck convention.
“I think they will do some things Week 1 that will be very different from what the NFL has seen,” this exec said. “They come from that analytics-heavy, Baltimore/Michigan mindset. They will take pride in the smarter-than-everyone-else-type stuff. Right out of the gate, they are going to be doing things where the narrative could be, ‘Whoa, how about this, college making its way to the NFL.’”
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10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Votes: 10-10-11-11-7 | Avg.: 9.8 | Median: 10
The line between winning the NFC South and finishing deep in the conference standings has been thin.
“They are homegrown, they are young,” an exec placing Tampa Bay 10th said. “They will be a little like the Rams last year, with a bunch of young guys who don’t know any better. Last year, they were 4-7 and wound up winning the division. The same thing could happen again this year.”
The combination of Baker Mayfield and first-time offensive coordinator Dave Canales worked last season. Can Mayfield and another first-time NFL play caller, Liam Coen, produce?
“Really hard to keep going and keep building when you change your offensive staff,” another exec said.
Coen comes to Tampa after bouncing between Kentucky and the Rams.
“They still have two really good receivers, they have a good runner — there are some things I like about them,” an exec said. “They have lost their edge a little bit defensively.”
11. Arizona Cardinals
Votes: 14-14-12-10-10 | Avg.: 12 | Median: 12
The exec ranking Arizona highest thought the Cardinals’ offense could be much improved.
“I like their offense a lot,” this exec said. “They are going to put Kyler Murray under center and really take advantage of what he brings with the boot, QB movement and keeper game. That is how you succeed with Kyler. They are not going to be fun to play.”
All execs agreed that Arizona’s roster still needs considerable work.
“I think San Francisco is 1 (in the NFC) and the Rams are 3, which means I have to think Arizona and Seattle are going to lose a lot, because where are those teams (49ers and Rams) getting their wins?” one said.
Votes: 12-12-13-13-12 | Avg.: 12.4 | Median: 12
One year ago, execs had the Saints sixth in this poll. The team finished 9-8, tied for the sixth-best record in the conference, after winning four of its final five.
Opinions on New Orleans have taken a hit since then, although one exec pointed to the Saints as more likely than every team but Washington to outpace expectations among bottom-five teams in this exercise.
“It could happen if Derek Carr takes a big leap or has a lot of success in Klint Kubiak’s offense, or if he gets hurt and Spencer Rattler has an unbelievable rookie year,” this exec said.
The Saints ranked fourth in combined EPA on defense and special teams last season. They are banking on Kubiak’s play-action system lifting an offense with big question marks on the line and at receiver.
“Best-case scenario, with the scheme and the youth, you just keep playing and guys get better, and — like Green Bay did last year — they become a strength,” an exec said.
Votes: 11-13-16-12-13 | Avg.: 13.6 | Median: 14
The voter placing Minnesota 16th has long been a Sam Darnold skeptic.
“I thought they would have overachieved with J.J. (McCarthy),” a different exec said. “I still think they hover around .500 with Darnold. He has a year under his belt with Kyle Shanahan. It’s a similar system. They got weapons on the outside. Maybe under .500, but I do think they are going to be better than people anticipate.”
The idea that one year with Shanahan might precipitate a career reversal for Darnold was tough for some to buy.
“If you want to bank on that, you can do some cryptocurrency and some small-cap international,” one exec said. “Green Bay is paying Jordan Love after 18 starts, Chicago is jettisoning Justin Fields after (38) and we’re still wondering on this guy (Darnold) after (56) starts with two teams?”
14. Washington Commanders
Votes: 13-16-6-14-14 | Avg.: 12.6 | Median: 14
The single No. 6 vote for Washington reflected one exec’s long shot pick for a potential worst-to-first team. Other execs agreed that Washington could surprise.
“I would probably go with the Commanders (as a potential surprise team) because of the quarterback, the defensive head coach and the ability to generate pressure,” the exec slotting Washington 13th said. “They have a solid group up front on defense. They got Jeremy Chinn. They have some players defensively who can create negatives and get after the passer. The quarterback has a chance to make people better.”
All execs questioned whether Washington had enough talent on offense around rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
“I just think they reek of average across the board, of a team looking to rebuild,” one exec said. “Lots of respect for DQ (Dan Quinn), but that could be the least talented roster in the NFC, outside the South.”
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Votes: 16-11-14-15-16 | Avg.: 14.4 | Median: 15
Any path for the Giants to surprise probably includes a breakout season from rookie receiver Malik Nabers.
“If Nabers or (Marvin) Harrison were Rookie of the Year, that means they had a bigger year than the quarterbacks — a historic year that would uplift their teams,” one exec said.
The Giants appear optimistic, having unretired Hall of Famer Ray Flaherty’s No. 1 jersey so the rookie can wear that number.
“Their best chance with Daniel Jones is to do what they did a couple years ago: Go heavy play-action, simple boots with simple reads, and scheme those guys to be open,” an exec who considers Jones to be a low Tier 3 quarterback said. “There is definitely a ceiling there. Unless they know something we all don’t, they are kind of existing.”
Votes: 15-15-15-16-15 | Avg.: 15.2 | Median: 15
Carolina was projected 10th entering last year and wound up with the NFL’s worst record.
“They still have a lot of work to do roster-wise, especially from a depth standpoint,” one exec said. “Their willingness to cut (K’Lavon) Chaisson suggests they’ve communicated to the owner that this is going take some time.”
Pouring resources into the interior offensive line seemed designed to spare quarterback Bryce Young from the avalanche that overwhelmed him as a rookie.
“I felt like Bryce Young started to play better toward the end of last year,” another exec said. “They think Dave Canales will get the most out of him. They will take their lumps this year and try to go young, and continue moving on from declining vets at the end of the year.”
(Top illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic; photos: Cooper Neill, Ric Tapia, Kevin Sabitus / Getty Images)
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