My annual Browns prediction column is usually fun, generating a lot of conversation — and some angst, too. I see it as a way to sort of empty the offseason notebook with a (mostly lighthearted) spin through the next few days and the next few months. On a personal level, it’s both interesting and important to lay out what’s brewing in the notebook and in my aging brain, then go through the process of deciding what I believe confidently, what I think I might believe, and what seems crazy to put out into the world.
For the Browns, the 2024 season features justifiably high expectations (due in large part to incredibly high financial investments) and many questions. Just how open is the window of opportunity to contend in a loaded AFC? And how long will it stay open? Are Deshaun Watson and Kevin Stefanski in lockstep? Can this defense spend much of the next four months in the bully role the way it did for most of last season?
We’ll see. Starting 4:25 on Sunday, seatbelts are highly recommended…
Garrett going back to back
Last year, I predicted that Myles Garrett would win his first NFL Defensive Player of the Year award and told Browns fans to scramble to their nearest legal sportsbook and to place that futures bet (at a price of +550). I got that one right — and here I am, still in the midst of a long victory lap. (Because the kids still need to go to basketball camp, I did not retire my prediction game — I’m back for more.)
I say take Garrett again, this time at the price of +800 on BetMGM. Garrett has all the tools, and I think he’s matured on and off the field. He seems fully aware of his talents and his place among the brightest stars in the NFL galaxy. He plays in a scheme that tries to keep him away from constant double (and triple) teams, and he’s shown the ability to make the big plays that not only show up on highlight reels, but have a massive impact on the Browns’ ability to win games. He’s headed to Canton, and we’re all along for the ride.
Also, I’m picking Garrett to be one of the heroes this week in what I predict will be a 20-17 win for the Browns over the Dallas Cowboys. Sunday is a big stage, and I think Garrett will thrive.
Watson and the weapons
Another call I got right last year — albeit not right away — was the big season for tight end David Njoku. There were signs last summer that Njoku was playing with more confidence. Ultimately, some bad luck and an occasional untimely penalty kept Njoku’s statistical breakout from being even bigger. But Njoku is a rare talent, and the only thing keeping him from being regarded as an elite tight end is a lack of consistency.
I don’t think he’s a one-year wonder. I think he’s sitting on another big season. If you’re a fantasy football player, you hopefully have the eighth-year tight end on your team; Njoku is going to get a lot of designed touches in this offense.
GO DEEPER
Browns need the best version of Deshaun Watson if they want to reach their ceiling
I still don’t know exactly what to expect from Watson, but the quarterback says he’s healthy and is still a talented player who can make almost all of the throws. The biggest keys to Watson finally delivering a big season for the Browns are availability and efficiency. He needs to cut down on the negative plays, and I think some safe, quick throws will be a part of the early game plan to get him on track.
I also understand the team’s vision when it comes to the offseason addition of Jerry Jeudy. The Browns rarely had their full first-team on the field during training camp, but Jeudy’s speed was obvious when he was out there — as was Watson’s interest in getting him the ball. Jeudy can get down the field and separate, and the Browns think he’ll free up Amari Cooper, too. It’s probably most likely that Cooper again leads the team in receiving yards, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Njoku or Jeudy leads the team in targets or receptions. Unlocking Jeudy feels like a key to this offense becoming the open and explosive unit it wants to be.
On the call
I think new Browns radio play-by-play man Andrew Siciliano will follow defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz’s lead from last year and be a big hit in his first season back with the Browns.
Yes, we’re briefly stepping away from football here. (And no, you shouldn’t have a problem with it.) Siciliano is replacing longtime broadcaster Jim Donovan, who last month informed the team he’d need to step away from his duties because his cancer had returned. Thousands of fans associate Donovan’s calls with Browns memories good and bad, and we’re all rooting for him to beat this awful thing again.
Siciliano has Cleveland roots, a little orange and brown in his blood, and he filled in last season on a handful of games before Donovan was able to return and call the playoff run. That was well overdue for Donovan, who continues to have the total support of the fanbase, the organization, the Browns media corps and the man following him in the radio booth.
“Jim is an icon,” Siciliano said in the team’s release announcing Siciliano’s hire — the new guy is already 1-for-1 this season on big calls.
GO DEEPER
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Who they’ll be offensively
I have neither the artistic ability to draw it up nor the access to closed-door meetings and practices to really tell you what I think this revamped offense is going to look like. But I do think the Browns plan to be a three-wide team most of the time, using a lot of college-like spread concepts, a lot of bootleg and misdirection plays, and even some run-pass option calls for Watson. I think a big feature will be the ability of Njoku and Jeudy (and even running back Jerome Ford) to line up in different spots to create mismatches and quick-game opportunities.
But we’ve been here — at least a little bit — before, and I think we’ve seen Stefanski be adaptable even before he had the varied backgrounds of new assistants Ken Dorsey and Tommy Rees to pull from. The Browns have a tight end shortage and don’t have a fullback, but particularly with their offensive line woes in the run-up to the season, they also have to find a way to button things up and go jumbo when necessary.
Nick Harris is the backup center, but he’s likely to again be used as a fullback and extra offensive lineman. Jack Conklin and James Hudson III need to be ready to play left tackle, right tackle and blocking tight end — Hudson could also be used as a fullback. The Browns ideally want to spread things out and let Watson create. Realistically, they’re just trying to find some wins over the season’s first month while finding their identity and settling on a playbook that works for the personnel they have on hand. If they have to open games in spread and close them with a former starting offensive lineman playing tight end to spark the run game, I think Stefanski will be fine with that. He has been in the past.
GO DEEPER
Browns will have Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills on active roster, but uncertainty remains
As for a prediction on who starts at left tackle in the opener, I truly don’t know. At this point, I believe both Hudson and Conklin will play there Sunday, and that when Jedrick Wills Jr. returns in a week or two, the job will go to whomever plays well enough to keep it.
Defensive pieces back in place
This defense is going to be good again. (Duh.) More specifically, this defense has a chance to be scary good again. With Garrett, cornerback Denzel Ward and linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah as the anchors, the Browns have the pieces to again be one of the league’s best. A second year in Schwartz’s scheme and a return to health for starting safeties Grant Delpit and Juan Thornhill should help clean up some of the communication errors — and, ideally, lead to the Browns creating more turnovers.
The defense no-showing for the playoff game last January is still alarming — and hard to explain. We’ll see if they’ll be better on the road than they were last year, and also if Schwartz is right about his offseason statement that the Browns can remain a fastball-throwing defense that’s also capable of mixing in the occasional curveball. It’s fair to assume the Houston Texans’ blueprint from the wild-card game is out there, so we’ll soon find out.
My prediction is that this defense goes from good to great if it stays mostly healthy and if it really learned lessons from the playoff letdown. Specifically, I think two of the biggest keys are the Browns getting another full season out of top defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson and another strong season out of Delpit, who signed an extension just before he got injured last January. Tomlinson is 30 and coming off arthroscopic knee surgery; he’s a key player due to his experience and his pure power on the interior. Tomlinson does a lot of the dirty work that helps free up the playmakers behind him.
Since it’s a prediction column, I’ll list cornerback Martin Emerson Jr., Delpit, punter Corey Bojorquez and offensive tackle Dawand Jones as the Browns’ most likely first-time Pro Bowlers, in that order. Jones has a high ceiling, and I believe that part of the team’s thinking in keeping him at right tackle this summer is to give Jones the best chance to master one position and reach that ceiling. Garrett and Njoku were probably the best players in training camp, but Emerson was good enough to be in the discussion.
GO DEEPER
What I’m seeing from the Cleveland Browns: O-line shakeups and other observations
Getting a little too gray
Father Time is undefeated. In this case, that’s worrisome.
The Browns are an older team. Yes, 30 is old in NFL years, and the Browns have 10 non-specialists who are 30 or older, plus some other offensive linemen flirting with 30. No one likes injuries, and no one can really predict them. But, as we saw last year, injuries can come in bunches, and the Browns are starting the season with real concerns at offensive tackle and running back because of them. We don’t know exactly when Nick Chubb will come back — or how close to 100 percent he’ll be — following a gruesome knee injury last September, and newly extended kicker Dustin Hopkins has had his last two seasons cut short because of injury.
The Browns gave Cooper his full 2024 salary before the season started and tacked on some incentives, but they didn’t add any extra years to Cooper’s deal ahead of his age-30 season. I think that’s telling. The Browns are clearly in win-now mode, as they should be. But I have doubts about the overall depth of a top-heavy roster, and I’m thinking that later this season we’ll start to see the effects of giving up on three straight years of first-round picks and missing at other levels of the draft.
General manager Andrew Berry and his staff have done a good job of building this roster — and of using multiple avenues in doing so. I just wonder about the state of the offensive skill positions if injuries do hit, and I think the state of the offensive line as a whole has to be a concern.
How far they will go
I still think this is a team with a high ceiling and the capability to make the playoffs. But I have to make a pick, and I just have too many questions to think these Browns will actually reach that ceiling.
I have the Browns finishing 9-8 and watching the playoffs from home. The offensive line has been a rock, but now it’s in flux — and, as mentioned above, aging. I wonder about the run game’s ability to keep the pass game out of difficult third-down spots. There’s just so much we haven’t seen from a schematic or situational standpoint with this remade offense, and over the past two seasons (and past two months) we haven’t seen Watson consistently throw down the field with a high level of confidence or accuracy.
If you’re angry, if you think I’m a moron, I get it. I got a bunch of last year’s predictions right but was wrong when I picked the Browns to miss the playoffs. I was even wrong once or twice before last year (twice, max). I just have too many concerns about the offense and the potential late-season schedule to see this as an 11-win team again.
If things go well and the Browns are back in the playoffs, they’ll continue to spend big and next offseason they’ll be looking to further juice up the pass rush and/or address the offensive line. My parting prediction for early 2025 is this: If Watson doesn’t have a great year, the Browns will either be selecting an offensive tackle or a quarterback when they finally return to the first round of the draft. Maybe a wide receiver, too, but a good year from the pass game would probably mean that Jeudy is a hit and that Cooper still has plenty left in the tank.
At some point this season, I think the team — and the fanbase — is going to move close to a clear answer on the Watson experiment. I’m not sure that answer is going to be that the Browns have their solution at the game’s most important position.
(Top photo: Nick Cammett / Diamond Images / Getty Images)
