Shota Imanaga is becoming a star. How did baseball not see this coming?

By Patrick Mooney, Sahadev Sharma and Ken Rosenthal

Shota Imanaga stood on the pitcher’s mound during a recent bullpen session, and even in that setting he did not look like an emerging star. He doesn’t throw 100 mph. He doesn’t tower over his opponents. He isn’t another kid in a business that’s always looking for younger and cheaper. As a result, the global, multibillion-dollar baseball industry did not hype up the Japanese pitcher, nor could it predict that he’d author this generation’s version of Fernandomania.

Certain things cannot be measured, of course, and what the Chicago Cubs have learned about Imanaga throughout his ascent is that he possesses a rare, breezy confidence. It was yet another element that was not fully apparent to the major-league clubs that scouted him.

So on that bullpen mound, Imanaga rocked into his delivery and fired off the kind of sharp-breaking slider that caught the team’s attention and made his transition to the big leagues possible. Rookies are supposed to be seen, not heard, but in this way, too, Imanga is exceptional. Perhaps it’s why he couldn’t help but offer those within earshot his own honest self-scouting report.

“Nasty s—!”

No one expected Imanaga to be this good, this fast. Not even the Cubs, who believed in him more than most. The organization began compiling an Imanaga scouting database back in 2018. But when the pitcher became available last winter, the Cubs did not jump out early and seize the negotiations. Even Imanaga himself understood his transition would be challenging.

Yet, Imanaga has gone from virtually unknown to North American baseball fans to one of the sport’s most valuable players so far this season. Ten starts into a four-year, $53 million contract, Imanaga has a 1.86 ERA. And just as Fernando Valenzuela won Rookie of the Year, a Cy Young Award and a World Series title in the same season, Imanaga has quickly established himself as a dynamic presence who pitches with passion and style.

There’s the long black hair and the high blue socks. There are the fist pumps and the screams on the mound. There are the shirtless dudes in the Wrigley Field bleachers who have taken to spelling out “S-H-O-T-A!” across their bare chests. In appearances on national platforms like MLB Network and “The Pat McAfee Show,” Imanaga wants to show his personality. Imanaga also does his job without being constantly attached to his interpreter, Edwin Stanberry, another sign of his growing comfort.

And sometimes there is no translation needed for the exclamations and expletives.

“I don’t think I said ‘Nasty s—,’” Imanaga said through his interpreter. “But I’ve said a few words. You say something when you’re surprised.”

Surprised would be an understatement within the front offices that control the modern game with data-driven decisions and risk-averse strategies. The spectacular start to Imanaga’s career has served as yet another reminder of the unpredictability in the free-agent market.

“We’re all kind of astonished at how good he’s been,” said one official from a National League club. Another executive with a different NL team described scouts and analysts anxiously checking the box scores, waiting for Imanaga to struggle because they’re getting and asking the same questions: “Why weren’t we on him? Why were we low on him?”

It’s still very early, as Cubs pitcher Drew Smyly cautioned, but the veteran lefty has also seen enough of Imanaga to say what others are thinking: “It’s definitely looking like a steal.”

How did the baseball industry not see this coming?


Shota Imanaga has dazzled Cubs fans at Wrigley Field, where he has a 1.20 ERA in five starts. (Matt Dirksen / Chicago Cubs / Getty Images)

Last winter, while waiting for the right offer, Imanaga and some of his associates posted up at an Embassy Suites hotel in Schaumburg, Ill. His first trip to Chicago had come in the fall, before he entered the posting system. His second trip came around Christmas as he neared the end of a 45-day negotiating window. Deadlines force cautious executives to make decisions.

Imanaga created his own scouting report during those travels. He felt the energy of a Chicago Blackhawks game at the United Center and posed next to the Michael Jordan statue. Imanaga worked out at Bo Jackson’s indoor facility near O’Hare International Airport, anticipating his next opportunity. To unwind as the deadline pressure increased, Imanaga’s group shopped for groceries at Mitsuwa Marketplace, a popular Japanese grocery store in Arlington Heights, and cooked dinners back at the hotel.

In a way, it was part of the Cubs’ home-field advantage. The organization already enjoyed a good relationship with Imanaga’s agency, Octagon, which counted clients such as Joe Maddon and Ben Zobrist during the 2016 World Series run. Octagon has an office on Michigan Avenue and a network throughout the Chicago area, which made it a convenient base for Imanaga and agents Lou Jon Nero and Yoshi Hasegawa. Imanaga’s representatives focused on where he would feel comfortable and targeted teams that could unlock his potential.

Chicago, the biggest city in the middle of a foreign country, quickly felt like the right place. Imanaga now just needed to know that his interest in the Cubs would be reciprocal.

Besides the Cubs, Imanaga also fielded interest from a wide-ranging group of teams. According to multiple sources familiar with the negotiations, that group included the San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros, Pittsburgh Pirates and Milwaukee Brewers.

“Our pitch-grade models really liked him,” Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi said. “They had plus grades on all three of his pitches — fastball, split and breaking ball. But our scouting reports weren’t as strong, and it’s understandable because what makes his pitches so effective doesn’t jump out to the naked eye. When you layer in the competition gap in scouting international professionals, it’s always easier to bank on louder tools than subtler skills like having pitches with unique movement patterns.”

Ultimately, for some teams, the lack of louder tools made Imanaga feel like more of a risk.

“The availability of pitch data from the Pacific Rim has theoretically made these valuations more sound, but there’s still a leap to take when you can’t hang your hat on high-end velocity,” Zaidi said. “I imagine there are scouts around the game that did see him as a high-end starter in the big leagues, but I suspect that the teams that were highest on him put the greatest stock in their pitch-model valuations.”

But as Cubs manager Craig Counsell likes to say, hitters don’t like anything that they’re not used to seeing, and Imanaga compensates for velocity with a four-seam fastball that drops far less than expected. The effect is often described as “rise.” The rise on Imanaga’s four-seamer is 2.9 inches better than average, per Statcast, so hitters find themselves under the pitch more often than not. That deception has turned Imanaga’s fastball into one of baseball’s best pitches.

Among scouts, there was some concern that Imanaga might not be able to consistently locate that pitch at the top of the zone. He wasn’t accustomed to it because the high strike isn’t called as often in Japan. And if not located well, the pitch will be hit hard. Scouts also flagged workload capacity as a possible issue, given Imanaga’s 5-foot-10 frame and a career high of 170 innings.

Even those precious numbers can be deceiving. An evaluator who tracked Imanaga said he pitched in a “dead-ball era” in Japan, where pitchers routinely put up sub-3.00 ERAs while facing contact-oriented hitters. Those hitters have good approaches and fewer holes in their swings, but they rarely step into the batter’s box with overwhelming power, looking to hit the ball into the seats. That style is essentially the opposite of the modern hitting philosophy at the major-league level.

Of course, money is always a factor, too. Rumblings within industry circles pegged the pitcher as seeking a five-year, $100 million contract, which Imanaga’s camp adamantly denied. It would have been a huge commitment for a player who’s already 30, especially considering that he had never thrown a major-league pitch before, and he does not come in a 6-foot-5, 230-pound package. Some clubs, even ones that recognized Imanaga’s talents, drew a hard line when it came to salary.

“It’s really hard to say we saw a historically good start to a major-league career,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Craig Breslow said. “We obviously saw a really talented pitcher who had a ton of success and had some unique pitch profiles we felt would translate over here really well.

“We made the offer we were comfortable with. I don’t know that it makes a ton of sense to go beyond that. We saw him as a very attractive starting pitcher. We ultimately didn’t land him. Players make decisions for all kinds of reasons. We respect all of them. But we can all appreciate what he has done.”

What he’s done is make himself comfortable faster than anyone could have imagined. Consider the nameplate that hangs over the pitcher’s locker at Wrigley Field: “MIKE IMANAGA.” That is the backup first name that Imanaga uses if he thinks Shota will be mispronounced or misunderstood. When asked for a new part of this culture that he’s come to enjoy, he said he’s been impressed with all the five-star amenities, such as pools and saunas, at the team’s hotels on the road. He’s taken to swimming as a way to help with recovery, and to prove his point, Imanaga reached into his locker and pulled out a clear bag containing a swim cap and goggles.

The Cubs did their homework. With Imanaga, the process began around the same time the club started scouting Seiya Suzuki, as part of an extensive effort to build relationships in Japan and enhance the organization’s reputation abroad. Last September, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer traveled to Japan to develop more connections, watching a group of players that included Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Imanaga.

The Cubs gained valuable insights into how to make a Japanese player feel more comfortable and assist in off-the-field matters. The lessons came from the recruitment of Suzuki, whom they successfully incorporated into the Wrigley Field clubhouse.

How a player will transition is a major part of the assessment whenever the Cubs follow an international player from another professional league. Jason Cooper, the organization’s Pacific Rim scouting supervisor and a senior pro personnel specialist, works years in advance to prepare for upcoming classes of potential international free agents. Shinsuke Yokote, the organization’s Pacific Rim scouting advisor, filed glowing reports on Imanaga’s makeup and desire to compete. The Cubs came to understand that Imanaga wanted the challenge, and recognized that he did not waffle over the idea of leaving home.

“We thought it was a great personality fit,” Cubs vice president of professional scouting Andrew Bassett said. “That gave us a little bit more comfort in extending to where we went.”

Ultimately, the Cubs anchored their evaluation with the idea that Imanaga improved between his 2022 and 2023 seasons with the Yokohama DeNA BayStars — and that he had done so specifically by developing a nastier slider. Their recommendations also had Imanaga taking more of a north-south approach than what is typically seen in NPB. Pitching up in the zone allows Imanaga to hammer the splitter down.

“You have to work really hard on a lot of different fronts,” Hoyer said. “There are fronts we worked hard on last winter that didn’t work out, and that fell in another team’s lap or went in a different direction. You’re going to lose some face-offs. You’re going to have some things happen. You have to put a lot of work into a lot of angles.”

Imanaga demonstrated his poise during last year’s World Baseball Classic, starting the championship game in which Japan beat Team USA. For the Cubs, it was yet another data point.

“Had we scouted Shota heavily? Yes,” Hoyer said. “Did we really stay on top of it? And did we do a lot of internal deep dives on how his stuff was going to play over here? Absolutely. But with this one, I also think we had some good fortune.”

Stress doesn’t seem to bother Imanaga, even on nights when he doesn’t have his best stuff. It didn’t matter that a stacked Atlanta Braves lineup was ready for Imanaga on May 13, driving up his pitch count to 98 through five innings. As the Braves generated seven hits and three walks, Imanaga still managed to hold their high-powered offense scoreless. At a moment when it looked like his historic start might crater, Imanaga went into Truist Park’s visiting clubhouse in between innings and sipped a Topo Chico.

Teammates laughed while recalling the image of a pitcher on the ropes drinking sparkling water.

Not every team could draw this out of Imanaga.

Once the Cubs had a deal, pitching coach Tommy Hottovy contacted Yu Darvish, asking the Japanese pitcher for advice on how to handle the transition. Darvish, who recently notched his 200th win between the majors and Nippon Professional Baseball, relayed a simple message: “Just trust the player.”

When Imanaga started the posting process, he asked Darvish generally about what he should look for while picking a team. Darvish told him to “sign with an organization who shows love to you.” It couldn’t just be about “how much” because you will need support at difficult moments.

Darvish struggled to stay healthy at the beginning of his six-year, $126 million contract with the Cubs, and the team traded him to the San Diego Padres midway through that deal. But Darvish pitched at such a high level in 2019 and 2020 — and performed with so much joy and creativity — that it left an indelible mark. Darvish found Chicago to be a welcoming place and believes the Cubs have a pitching group that identifies individual strengths and tailors a program for each player.

“They don’t do the same stuff for all the pitchers,” Darvish said. “Like with me, it’s just let him play. Whatever he wants to throw, just let him throw it.”

Imanaga’s travels to Chicago put the Cubs top of mind as he neared a Jan. 11 deadline to sign a major-league contract. When the deal was done, Imanaga showed that his way of bonding with teammates and interacting with the media would be intentional. Ahead of his introductory press conference, Imanaga, the son of two teachers, studied the lyrics and practiced his delivery before reciting “Go Cubs Go.”

“Shota’s not young,” Counsell said. “I don’t mean to say that he’s old, but I think he is in a place in life where he is very sure of who he is. That’s been evident from early on. He’s very confident in his choices, very confident in the people he puts around him. It all shows in how he handles the situation. If you come here to play, you’re looking for an experience.”

That experience will include more learning. Imanaga’s stamina will be tested in the second half of the season. There are lingering questions about how hotter weather could impact the ride of his fastball. Different environments can decrease the rise, which could be problematic if he leans too heavily on the four-seamer as it loses effectiveness. It could lead to more hard contact — and suddenly concerns that some harbor about his vulnerability to home runs could become a reality.

Looking ahead, Counsell has proactively tried to find extra rest for Imanaga (and other Cubs pitchers), preferring to avoid the five-day schedule for starters and leaning toward the six-day routine that’s customary in Japan. Imanaga will also have to evolve as he’s barely used his other pitches, going to his curveball, sweeper and sinker a little over 10 percent of the time. The Cubs fully expect him to adapt because of his ability to absorb information and figure out what’s important. And not just go along with whatever the analytics department says.

“When you’re coming to the major leagues, it’s like: ‘I want to do all these things,’” Hottovy said. “He’s been able to actually take a step back and say, ‘No, let me focus on what my core strengths are and attack what I do really well. And then we’ll adjust when we need to adjust.’”

For the Cubs, this deal could still wind up in the ballpark of a nine-figure investment between the club options to extend the contract to a fifth year and $80 million guaranteed, the salary escalators around the Cy Young Award, and the posting fee to Imanaga’s Japanese club.

“From the beginning, we decided to prioritize an MLB team that we felt would make Shota the best pitcher he could be,” said Nero, the Octagon agent. “There is a lot that goes into finding the right fit, and we felt that with the Cubs. Jed, (GM) Carter (Hawkins) and their team made it clear that they would give it everything, which resonated with Shota. It is clear that they have kept to the plan, and everyone in Wrigleyville is seeing the benefit of that commitment.”

Imanaga doesn’t believe he’s proven anything yet. He’s quick to deflect credit to his coaches, the Japanese staffers in the organization and the teammates who give him so much positive reinforcement. Maybe Shotamania doesn’t happen in another city on a different team. After all, this isn’t a widget factory or some computer program. Perhaps the entertaining pitcher with the “nasty s—” is exactly where he’s supposed to be.

“The Cubs organization is amazing,” Imanaga said through his interpreter. “It’s been so easy to acclimate over here.”

(Top photo: Daniel Shirey / MLB Photos / Getty Images)



Fonte

RELATED ARTICLESMORE FROM AUTHOR